Wondering if the Comox Valley is leaning toward buyers or sellers right now? You are not alone. The answer comes down to a few simple numbers that show how fast homes are selling and how many are available. In this guide, you will learn how to read those numbers, what they mean for your pricing and offer strategy, and where to find current local stats for Courtenay, Comox, and Cumberland. Let’s dive in.
What buyer’s vs. seller’s market means here
A market type is a shorthand for who has more leverage at a given time. In the Comox Valley, it is usually defined by supply and demand, then translated into practical tactics for your next move.
The metrics that answer the question
- Inventory (active listings): How many homes are for sale at a point in time. Helpful for scale, but it needs demand for context.
- Sales (per month): How many properties sold in a month. Paired with inventory, this shows market speed.
- Absorption rate: Monthly sales divided by active listings. Higher absorption means listings are selling faster, which favors sellers.
- Months of supply (MOS): Active listings divided by average monthly sales. This is the clearest, most used indicator.
- Less than about 3 months of supply means a seller’s market.
- About 3 to 6 months means a balanced market.
- More than 6 months means a buyer’s market.
- Sales-to-active-listings ratio: This is the same idea as absorption. As a quick guide, above 20 percent points to a seller’s market, 12 to 20 percent is balanced, and below 12 percent leans buyer.
These thresholds are guidelines. In the Comox Valley, property type, price range, and seasonality can tilt the reading.
How to calculate months of supply
You can do this at your kitchen table with two numbers: active listings and monthly sales. Keep it simple and label the month and property type you are using.
Step-by-step
- Gather the counts for the Comox Valley:
- Active listings at a reference date.
- Sales that closed in the last month.
- Calculate:
- Absorption rate = sales ÷ active listings (as a percent).
- Months of supply = active listings ÷ monthly sales.
- Interpret using the thresholds above, then add local context like property type and price band.
Quick hypothetical example
- If there are 60 active listings and 12 sales in a month, months of supply is 60 ÷ 12 = 5. That suggests a balanced market.
- If there are 50 active listings and 25 sales, months of supply is 2. That suggests a seller’s market.
- If there are 120 active listings and 10 sales, months of supply is 12. That suggests a buyer’s market.
What it means for your strategy
Market type guides how you price, market, and negotiate. Use the insights below as options, not one-size-fits-all advice. Keep your financing and inspection protections appropriate for your situation.
Seller’s market (MOS below ~3)
- For sellers
- Price competitively to spark early interest. Overpricing can stall momentum.
- Expect shorter days on market. Strong preparation and staging still matter.
- You may negotiate less on price and conditions. Be thoughtful about offer timing.
- For buyers
- Come prepared with pre-approval and clear budget limits.
- Expect competition. Consider at-or-above-list pricing on well-priced homes.
- Shorten condition periods only if you are comfortable and well-advised.
Balanced market (MOS ~3–6)
- For sellers
- Price in line with recent comparables. Expect modest negotiation.
- Keep marketing quality high. Good condition helps you stand out.
- Be flexible on dates or small concessions to keep deals moving.
- For buyers
- You have room to compare properties and negotiate.
- Keep standard protections like inspection and financing.
- Well-priced homes can still draw interest, so move promptly on the good ones.
Buyer’s market (MOS above ~6)
- For sellers
- Price sharply to stay competitive. Plan for longer days on market.
- Invest in high-return improvements and presentation.
- Consider incentives like flexible dates or included appliances.
- For buyers
- You have negotiating power and time to shop.
- Use detailed inspections and financing conditions.
- Watch for motivated sellers and price reductions.
Local factors that matter in the Comox Valley
The Comox Valley is a smaller regional market, so small shifts can make a big difference in the numbers.
- Market scale and volatility: A change of a few dozen listings or a handful of sales can swing the metrics month to month. Look at 3 or 6 month trends to smooth noise.
- Micro-markets: Courtenay, Comox, and Cumberland can move differently. So can specific neighborhoods, price ranges, and property types.
- Property type: Single-family homes may be tighter than condos or rural properties at the same time.
- Price bands: Entry-level homes often move faster. Higher-end properties can lag, even in a seller’s market.
- Seasonality: Spring and early summer usually see more listings and sales. Winter often slows down.
- Complementary metrics: Days on market and list-to-sale price ratios help you read price pressure.
Three quick scenarios to visualize it
- Tight market example: 50 active listings, 25 sales. Months of supply is 2. Multiple offers are more common, and buyers need to act fast.
- Balanced example: 60 active listings, 12 sales. Months of supply is 5. Both sides negotiate, and realistic pricing wins attention.
- Buyer advantage example: 120 active listings, 10 sales. Months of supply is 12. Buyers can be patient and use thorough conditions.
Where to get current Comox Valley numbers
You can pull fresh figures each month from local sources and calculate your own reading.
- Check the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board’s monthly statistics for the Comox Valley zone. You will typically see active listings, sales, new listings, and benchmark price trends.
- Review local REALTOR and brokerage snapshots for breakdowns by property type and community.
- For broader context on definitions and methodology, see resources from CREA, CMHC, Statistics Canada, and BC Assessment.
When you record the numbers, include:
- The date and month-year of the stats.
- The property type you used, such as all residential, single-family, or condo.
- The geography, such as the Comox Valley zone or a specific town.
- Rolling averages for 3 or 6 months when the monthly counts are small.
Bottom line
To decide if the Comox Valley is in a buyer’s or seller’s market, start with months of supply, then layer in property type, price band, and recent trends. With a clear read on those pieces, you can set a smart price, write a confident offer, and time your move with less stress.
If you want a tailored read for your home or your next purchase, including remote support and Home Hunting Trips for relocations, connect with a local advisor who works this data every day. Start your move today. Book a Home Hunting Trip with Stevie Cauvier.
FAQs
How do you tell if the Comox Valley is in a buyer’s or seller’s market?
- Look at months of supply: below about 3 favors sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favors buyers, then add property type and price range context.
What is months of supply and why does it matter in the Comox Valley?
- It is active listings divided by monthly sales and shows how long it would take to sell current inventory; it is the clearest snapshot of leverage in a small market.
Do condos and single-family homes behave the same in the Comox Valley?
- Not always; single-family can be tighter while condos or rural properties may show more supply, so always check by property type.
How quickly can the Comox Valley shift from buyer to seller conditions?
- Faster than large cities; a modest change in listings or sales can swing the metrics, so use 3 or 6 month trends to avoid overreacting.
How do interest rates affect buyer vs. seller dynamics in the Comox Valley?
- Higher rates often reduce demand and raise months of supply, which can tilt toward a buyer’s market if supply does not drop at the same time.
Where can you get up-to-date Comox Valley housing numbers?
- Look to the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board’s monthly stats and local brokerage market snapshots, or ask a local agent for current months of supply by property type.
